{"id":3462,"date":"2016-12-14T15:29:53","date_gmt":"2016-12-14T15:29:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.internationaldiplomat.com\/?p=3462"},"modified":"2016-12-14T15:29:53","modified_gmt":"2016-12-14T15:29:53","slug":"quo-vadis-catalonia-part-two-catalonia-europe-and-the-world-by-albert-pont-president-catalan-circle-for-business-www-ccncat-cat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/12h71.com\/?p=3462","title":{"rendered":"QUO VADIS CATALONIA? – Part Two Catalonia, Europe and the World by Albert Pont, President, Catalan Circle for Business (www.ccncat.cat)"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the first part of this article we referred to the historic, political, economic and cultural reasons that, for over three centuries, have underpinned the Catalan claim for self-rule. In this second part, we shall provide readers with a succinct overview of the Catalan \u201cRoad Map\u201d to independence together with the economic and legal consequences of the establishment of a Catalan Republic, both for the Catalan population, for foreign residents in Catalonia, as well as for third country nationals having to deal with a newly independent Catalan State.
\nWhat can be Expected Next?<\/strong>
\nThe will of the Catalans was expressed peacefully and democratically in the last elections to the Catalan Parliament held in September 2015. But there has been a constant hostility shown by Madrid towards Catalan institutions, as well as contempt for the basic democratic mandate from the Catalan people. There have been no political voices in Spain in favour of finding ways to reach an understanding with Catalonia. The only \u201creply\u201d from the Spanish Popular Party (PP) government to the legitimate claims of Catalans that their political and economic rights be respected and about the need for a genuine political dialogue, has been the unprecedented, extravagant and abusive role and the repressive powers vested to the Spanish Constitutional Court (SCC), that are contrary to democratic division of powers and the rule of law, to \u201cprosecute and punish\u201d Catalan political leaders and public officers and the intensification of the \u201cdirty war\u201d being waged by the Spanish state against Catalonia.
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\nThe \u201cDirty War\u201d against Catalonia<\/strong>
\nAs it was revealed by the media, since 2010 there have been undercover moves by Spanish powers to create false evidence incriminating Catalan political figures with the help of Spanish \u201cpatriotic\u201d news media. In this connection, it is worth pointing out to the existence of secret recordings, made by the Ministry of the Interior, that were made public due to the disputes between different \u201cfactions\u201d in the Spanish security bodies and were then profusely covered by Catalan and Spanish media, concerning the existence of a vast conspiracy to discredit Catalan political leaders and to prepare the ground for an intervention by the central Spanish government to do away with the remnants of Catalan autonomy.
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\nThe so-called \u201cOperation Catalonia\u201d was organized by the Spanish Minister of the Interior (the leading candidate of the PP in Catalonia), employing vast resources among the police forces, the public prosecutors and the judiciary in order to create false accusations of corruption and wrongdoing against the Catalan pro-independence leaders, that were regularly \u201cfiltered\u201d to the media during the critical periods prior to Catalan and Spanish elections. This must be seen in a political context in Spain characterized by a proliferation of instances of corruption, indictments and judicial proceedings against Spanish PP political leaders and officials (as in the so-called \u201cArena\u201d,\u201dG\u00fcrtel\u201d and \u201cBankia\u201d cases) involving some Presidents of Autonomous Communities, town mayors, former treasurers of the Popular Party (accused of having operated a parallel system of illegal party contributions and kickbacks for over 20 years) and even members of the Spanish royal family.\u00a0 Moreover, after two general elections held over the course of one year, the PP has been incapable of securing a stable majority. Spain is thus \u201cmanaged\u201d by a caretaker PP government that refuses to be accountable to the elected representatives of the Spanish Parliament (Cortes) and whose only objective seems to be to continue using the Spanish Constitutional Court as a tool to repress the claims and aspirations of Catalans while it goes on exploiting them.
\nThe Economic Perspective: the \u201cSplitting\u201d of Spanish Debt<\/strong>
\nThe Kingdom of Spain is riddled with a huge unpayable debt. Presently, the public indebtness of the country is just over 100 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product. From an over USD 5 billion loan requested by the Spanish government from the European Central Bank to prevent the collapse of the banking system (and avoid an \u201cintervention\u201d by the EU), a mere USD 500 million have been recovered from the banks (most of them controlled by political cronies). The rest will have to be shouldered by many generations of Spanish tax payers.\u00a0 Given the prevalence of corruption scandals, indebtness and repression, the worst case scenario for Catalans is, clearly, to remain part of Spain.\u00a0 As we explained in the first part of this article, the nature of Catalan economy is fundamentally different from the oligarchic canvas prevalent in most areas of the Spanish State. Catalan economic activity is firmly rooted in the real economy, more industrially diversified and more sustainable than in the rest of Spain (and many areas of the EU). During the \u201ccrisis years\u201d, despite the systematic financial suffocation caused by the measures taken in Madrid, Catalan exports have increased three-fold, and they have also augmented their value added and their technological content. Presently, only one third of Catalan sales go to the Spanish market[1]<\/a> . Catalonia continues to attract international investments and, according to the well-known economist Jeremy Rifkin, \u201cCatalonia is well placed and has all the required technological resources and assets to spearhead the \u201cthird industrial revolution\u201d based on a collaborative and sustainable economic model, resilient to climate change\u201d[2]<\/a>.
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\nBut, what will be the effect of the \u201csplitting\u201d of the huge Spanish debt burden on a newly independent Catalan State? A recently published analysis of the \u201cEconomics of a Catalan Secession from Spain\u201d reaches the following enlightening conclusions, based on different political scenarios[3]<\/a>:
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